BJP won the semis by 2-3

The recently held Vidhan Sabha elections in five Indian states were touted to be the semi finals before the general elections which are expected to be held in March – April 2009. Most analysts have concluded that since Congress suceeded in forming the Government in three states, it has won this semi final has emerged stronger than BJP. But as usual, the devil is in the details.  

Of the three states won by Congress two are Delhi and Mizoram. These two states together account for just eight Lok Sabha seats which is three less than Chattisgarh which was not only retained by BJP but the party even increased its vote share defying anti – incumbancy factor. Congress suceeded in wresting Rajasthan from BJP but it managed to get only one percent more votes than BJP. This despite the fact that BJP had to face rebel candidates in as many as 60 constituencies and many of them won (fourteen independents won with a vote share of about 20% in the state).If  votes of the four big states in the polls (excluding Mizoram) are aggregated, it is clear that BJP got 38 % of total votes polled whereas the Congress got around 36% in these elections. Even if the Vidhan Sabha seats are aggregated, BJP has won more seats (BJP got 294 whereas the Congress got 279) than Congress in the five states even if one includes 32 seats won by Congress in Mizoram which sends just one MP to Lok Sabha. Infact the states won by BJP i.e MP and Chattisgarh account for 40 Lok Sabha seats whereas the states won by Congress i.e Rajasthan, Delhi & Mizoram account for 33 Lok Sabha seats. So the performance of BJP was far bettter than Congress both in terms of vote share and seats won. This despite the fact that BJP had the disadvantage of anti incumbency in the three bigger states.

 One of the other myth that was perteprated by analysts is irrelevance of internal security as a poll issue by citing the results of Delhi elections where Shiela Dikshit won, despite the fact that Delhi alsio faced serial blasts earlier this year. However, these analysts conviniently ignore that Delhi voters are aware of the fact that Shiela Dikshit does not control Police or any other law and order department as security is not a State subject for Delhi & it is directly controlled by Central Government. In Chattisgarh, of the 31 Naxal affected seats BJP won 26 seats mainly because of the its Government’s support to Salwa Judum, a people’s movement against Naxalism. Congress had promised to disband Salwa Judum and was routed in the Naxal affected areas. So internal security is indeed a big issue and would be a bigger issue in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections.

The results of these elections clearly point towards Advantage BJP for Lok Sabha 2009.

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7 thoughts on “BJP won the semis by 2-3

  1. BJP is on its way to win Loksabha…
    Congress even lost its seats in Kashmir and BJP gain 10 more seats than last election…
    Congress downfall has already started and it ll end up loosing its national party tag…

  2. As per the above analysis of “seats-votes relationship” yes BJP has won the semis by 2-3 and as usual it would be a “feel good” factor for all BJP leaders and supporters. But I feel BJP has a long way to go to win the upcoming Loksabha Elections.

    Seats–votes relationship is not very ambiguous to understand. Allocation of number of seats depends on two factors; geographical area and population in that region. In other words, seats-votes relationship is affected by the distribution of constituencies and the distribution of voters. In the recent assembly election total number of seats state-wise, Delhi- 69, Mizoram- 40, Rajshthan-200, MP-230, Chattisgarh-90.Out of these 1st three states are won by Congress having total 309 seats and the last two retained by BJP having total 320. Clearly number of voters should be more in BJP ruled MP and Chattisgarh as compare to other three. Now as the blog says, even after excluding Mizoram, total vote share for Congress is 36% as compare to BJP’s 38%. Is this marginal difference of just 2% really an achievement for BJP or a reason to say that it has performed far better than Congress?

    I am just trying to give it another perspective and I think retaining seats is not as tough as outperforming and winning. Whatsoever may be the reason, the fact is BJP had failed to retain itself in Rajsthan by losing 41 seats whereas Congress gained 40 and ended up making government. Also in Madhya Pradesh BJP lost 31 seats whereas Congress gained 32. Overall if we consider 4 big states (excluding Mizoram) Net Loss for BJP is 70 seats which is nothing but the Net Gain for Congress. BJP could not retain these many seats and there could be thousands of reasons but a ‘poor leadership’ in case of Rajashthan; poor selection of candidates, failure to manage rebel factor, micro-level mismanagement and internal sabotage put the BJP at a disadvantageous position.

    Rather than concluding that BJP is going to win Loksabha 2009, I feel this is the stage where BJP should identify its weaknesses and work towards it whether it is in terms of party leadership or tasks pending if any.

    P.S. – Comment is independent (Neither Anti-BJP nor Pro-Congess)

  3. @Yuvraj

    There was a time when Congress was the only National Party. But as you said, the day is not far when it will cease to become a national party.

    @ Arvind

    I never concluded that BJP is going to win the LokSabha elections just because its performance has been impressive in the recent polls ( now you can also include J&K where BJP got 11 seats compared to 1 last time & in Karnataka it got 6 out of 8 seats in Vidhan Sabha byelections where it held only 2 seats and Congress lost all 3 )but that BJP is at advantage despite the setbacks in Rajasthan. If you have been following elections in India, you would be aware that anti incumbency plays a major role in Indian elections. So BJP was at a disadvantage in the three big states before the elections as it was facing anti incumbency.

    Despite this it won MP, increased its voteshare in Chattisgarh & lost Rajasthan by a narrow margin of 1% votes. In Rajasthan it was facing rebels in 70 seats and still Congress could lead by just 1%.

    I feel BJP still needs to work hard for the coming Lok Sabha elections. My post was necessitated by the hype that Congress has won these “semi finals” which is definitely not true.

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  5. Weeklong Celebrations Culminate As The Sikh Community Celebrated Guru Nanak Jayanthi With Enthusiasm In The City
    The weeklong celebrations come to an end as the Sikhs of the city, celebrated the birthday of Guru Nanak Dev, the founder of the Sikh faith.
    Guru Nanak Jayanthi is the birth anniversary of the founder of the Sikh faith who was born in the month of Kartik. Born in 1469 A.D. at Tolevandi, some 30 miles from Lahore, the religion of Sikhism was founded is the result of his great vision, dedication and devotion. For the Sikhs it is a time of celebration. Men, women, and children, participated in this karseva as service to the community, cook food and distribute it in the ‘Guru ka Langar’, with the traditional ‘Karah Prasad’. The Sikhs also visit gurudwaras where special programs are arranged and religious songs are sung in praise of guru nanak. A similar gathering was held at the Gurudwara at CBD Belapur where Thane Guardian Minister and Belapur MLA Ganesh Naik was present. He was welcomed with the traditional shawl and sword of the Sikhs.

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